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FIRE SEASON UPDATE - DECEMBER 2025
Wednesday, 10th December 2025
AFAC’s Seasonal Outlook
Australia has experienced a mild winter and spring season, and despite a seemingly wet winter for most of NSW, surface moisture hides deeper drying that has resulted from long-term rainfall deficits, with some places reporting their lowest ever rainfall for this period.
Southern Australia has experienced warmer-than-normal temperatures, and below-average spring rainfall has compounded already long-term rainfall deficits across South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania. Higher-than-average atmospheric pressure over the south of Australia has been contributing to the drier conditions witnessed across southern regions, whereas seasonal rainfall in WA has led to additional growth and increased fuel loads.
Therefore, looking ahead to December through to February, the forecasted rainfall is weak, indicating there is approximately an equal chance of both above- or below-average rainfall. Below-average rainfall is likely for northern parts of WA and some inland parts of the east. Chances of above-average rainfall have generally decreased over recent forecasts, with a dry signal now more pronounced for the month of December.
Above-average sea surface temperatures persist around much of the Australian coastline, providing increased moisture and energy that can enhance the severity of storms and weather systems. December to February is likely to see above-average daytime temperatures for most of Australia, with overnight temperatures expected to be warmer almost nationwide. Soil moisture is average to above average for most parts of the country, with exceptions for the previously mentioned regions of NSW—particularly central northern parts of the state—as well as parts of SA and Victoria.
La Niña is active but is likely to be short-lived, while the Indian Ocean Dipole is negative but expected to return to neutral in December. Fire services will be monitoring conditions continuously throughout summer because vegetation can dry rapidly under the wrong conditions.
Communities all across the country, and in particular those living in the described regions of heightened risk, should remain vigilant. This also applies to areas of Australia that show a normal level of fire risk this season too.
Learn more here: AFAC Seasonal Outlook Summer 2025
Long-range BOM forecast overview from the 9th of December 2025
• For December to February, below median rainfall is likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be below average for areas of the west and eastern inland areas. The rainfall forecast signal remains weak along the east coast and across the south, suggesting approximately equal likelihood of above or below average rainfall.
• December to February, maximum temperatures are likely to be above average (60% to >80% chance) across most of Australia, some areas have an increased chance of unusually high maximum including most of north-west Australia, Queensland and much of the south-east.
• Above median December to February minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) across almost all of Australia, warmer than average nights with an increased chance of unusually high overnight temperatures, greater over 50% chance for large parts of northern Australia.
• This forecast is predominantly influenced by the result of some of the warmest sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on record. The second to last week of November had warmer than average SSTs around western and northern parts of Australia and predicts likely warmer-than-average SSTs around all of Australia this summer particularly the eastern regions. Warmer than average SSTs provide increased moisture in the atmosphere and energy that can enhance the severity of storms and weather systems.
Learn more here: Long range BOM forecast