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Fire Season Update, December 2022
Monday, 19th December 2022
There is prolific growth in grass fuel loads across most of NSW. With wet soils, continued grass growth into summer is predicted. Grass curing is currently below 50% in most parts of the state. This is typical for this time of year, but given the outlook for relatively typical conditions in January and February, these large grass fuel loads are predicted to dry out and cure over summer.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) remains wetter than average for this time of year across inland NSW, tending closer to average values across the ranges and coast. The KBDI has been increasing along the northern NSW coast during November and is now slightly drier than average.
Whilst the ranges of NSW are rated as "average" KBDI, root-zone (0-1m) soil moisture suggests conditions are "above average" to "very much above average" highlighting that deeper soil moisture is still present in upper catchment areas.
December 2022
The outlook for NSW for December 2022 suggests either average or below average Fire Danger conditions.
Rainfall: Wetter than average conditions are generally favoured for most of NSW, particularly the southeast.
Maximum Temperatures: Cooler than average days are strongly favoured across most of NSW, with less than 20% chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature for December.
Minimum Temperatures: Average to cooler than usual nights are favoured across NSW.
December to February 2022
Rainfall: Wetter than average conditions are favoured east of the Dividing Range and across the southern VIC border (65-80% chance of exceeding median rainfall), with weaker odds for remaining inland areas (tending to 50-65% of exceeding median).
Maximum Temperatures: Cooler than usual days are strongly favoured across central and eastern portions of the state, tending closer to average in the far west. Minimum Temperatures: Warmer than usual nights are favoured across parts of NSW, tending closer to average in the centre of the state.
The outlook for NSW for January 2023 suggests central and northern NSW will start to see more average to above average Fire Danger conditions. The outlook in the south and east is to continue to see below average Fire Danger conditions.
The outlook for NSW for February 2023 suggests most of NSW is likely to see average or above average Fire Danger Conditions, with only parts of the east coast seeing below average conditions. Large parts of NSW, particularly the state’s west, are facing an above normal fire potential for the outlook period, due to prolific grass growth.
Early summer fire activity is expected to remain below normal in flood affected regions.
However with an expected return to more normal rainfall conditions over summer, these grass fuels are likely to cure and become more susceptible to fire. This will result in an above average fire potential later in summer, with the chance of exceeding average fire danger in grassland areas increasing towards the end of the quarter.
Information on the IOD and NINO3.4 is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices/about.shtml
Note: The Bureau of Meteorology’s Fire Danger Outlook products are pilot products and should be used in conjunction with other information.